African Swine Fever has had a dynamic and rapid influence on the global meat market, with Chinese import demand driving price inflation across all major proteins in 2020. Chinese demand has led to a huge trade shift, with many major beef exporting nations pivoting on the market. This has left various traditional markets with a meat supply deficit.   Growing production and exports from key competitors, particularly the United States and Brazil, have intensified competition, especially in Asian markets.

For now, strong global demand, led by pork shortage in China, has soaked up additional beef on the global market and supported prices.    

In Namibia, the prospects for export trade for red meat for the next few years is optimistic on the backdrop of record growth rates in demand.  The biggest challenge for the Namibian industry will be the ability to source the livestock to fulfil this demand.

We look at some of the demand factors, in beef export: -

Politics

Trade policies

FTAs and market access arrangements

SACU, EU-EPAS, EFTA, SADC Trade Protocol, AfCFTA, AGOA

Geopolitics

Food security

Carbon footprint

Economics

Growing global demand for food

Switch in market emphasis

Namibia dollar

South African feedlots

Volatile global commodity markets

Social

Changing consumption patterns

On-line shopping trends

Food safety

Branding

Genetically modified organisms

Technology

Cold chain integrity

Technical trade barriers

Environment

Compliance with international standards

Global warming

The Rapid alert system for food and feed

Legislation

Integrity of trading partner legal systems

Trade import tariffs and export quotas

The SOE Governance Act of 2006

Capacity of Namibia’s Department of Veterinary Services

Robust international demand is expected to drive export growth, with beef exports forecast to reach 11.5 million tonnes in 2020, an increase of 4% on 2019. Increased demand for beef across Asia, underpinned by declining pork production, will be a key factor driving this growth.